Nigeria’s non-oil economy, long regarded as the anchor of growth, saw its dominance slightly eroded in the second quarter of 2025 as oil output rebounded strongly.
According to the latest Gross Domestic Product report for the second quarter of 2025 released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the non-oil sector accounted for 95.95% of real GDP in Q2 2025, down from 96.49% in the same period of 2024 and 96.03% in Q1 2025.
The report read, “In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 95.95% to the nation’s GDP in the second quarter of 2025, lower than the share recorded in the second quarter of 2024, which was 96.49% and lower than the first quarter of 2025 recorded as 96.03%.”
While the change appears marginal, it is significant in the context of Nigeria’s growth structure.
The oil sector’s share rose as crude production improved, showing how oil performance can still shift the balance of the economy despite years of diversification efforts.
Oil sector rebounds sharply
Average daily crude oil production climbed to 1.68 million barrels per day in Q2 2025, up from 1.41 mbpd in Q2 2024 and 1.62 mbpd in Q1 2025.
This pushed the oil sector’s real GDP growth to 20.46% year-on-year, compared with just 1.87% in the previous quarter. Consequently, oil’s share of GDP rose to 4.05%, up from 3.51% a year earlier.
The NBS noted, “The nation in the second quarter of 2025 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.68 million barrels per day (mbpd), higher than the daily average production of 1.41 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2024 by 0.27 mbpd and higher than the first quarter of 2025 production volume of 1.62 mbpd by 0.06mbpd.
“The real growth of the oil sector was 20.46 (year-on-year) in Q2 2025, indicating an increase of 10.38% points relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2024 (10.08%). Growth increased by 18.59% points when compared to Q1 2025, which was 1.87%. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of 6.01% in Q2 2025.
“The Oil sector contributed 4.05% to the total real GDP in Q2 2025, up from the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2024 at 3.51%. and up from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 3.97%.”
Non-oil sector still dominant
The non-oil sector expanded by 3.64% in Q2 2025, faster than the 3.26% growth in Q2 2024 and the 3.19% recorded in Q1 2025. But because the oil sector grew much faster, the non-oil share of GDP declined.
The NBS report read, “The non-oil sector grew by 3.64% in real terms during the reference quarter (Q2 2025). This rate was higher by 0.38% points compared to the rate recorded in the same quarter of 2024, which was 3.26% and higher than the 3.19% recorded in the first quarter of 2025.
“This sector was driven in the second quarter of 2025 mainly by Agriculture (Crop production); Information and Communication (Telecommunications); Real Estate; Financial and Insurance (Financial Institutions); Trade; Construction; and Electricity, Gas, Steam & Air Conditioning Supply, accounting for positive GDP growth.”
Agriculture grew by 2.82% year-on-year, with crop production remaining the main driver. Its contribution to GDP was 26.17%, slightly below 26.53% a year earlier.
The services sector, which makes up the bulk of non-oil output, grew by 3.94%. Trade, the single largest services subsector, contributed 18.28% to GDP but was down from 18.81% in Q2 2024. Information and communication grew by 6.61%, lifting its share to 11.18% from 10.93% a year earlier. Finance and insurance expanded by 16.13% and accounted for 3.23% of GDP, up from 2.89%.
