South Africa’s technology and durables (T&D) manufacturers and retailers will face fierce competition for the consumer’s rand during the upcoming Black Friday promotional period, with NIQ South Africa forecasting relatively flat growth in terms of units and revenues compared to 2024.
Continuing trends seen throughout 2025, consumers look set to be cautious and strategic in their spending across the categories that have traditionally fuelled growth over the Black Friday period.
That’s according to Zak Haeri, MD for NIQ in South Africa, who says that year-on-year growth for tech and durables during Black Friday appears to have peaked. He says that the low-end and mid-range market will be the main arena for competition in most categories amid low confidence and a quest for value among South African consumers. The winning brands will be those that offer meaningful discounts and come to market with a carefully calibrated message about the functional value their products offer in terms of smart features, energy efficiency and brand reliability.
Says Haeri: “We are no longer seeing the sharp year-on-year rises in Black Friday sales we recorded just a few years ago, indicating that the market has reached a saturation point. In 2024, we saw modest growth, despite a trend towards deeper discounting across the T&D sector. Even so, Black Friday Week is the largest sales week of the year, with T&D sales volumes and revenues that are around double those of any other week in the year. It remains the most important promotional period for T&D brands and retailers and a battleground for brand relevance.”
Flat forecasts, fierce competition
NIQ forecasts that the smartphone market will show a year-on-year decline in sales value for November, despite a healthy increase in unit sales. Aggressive discounting in the low-end to midrange markets will set the pace for this all-important category, with challenger brands expected to start their promotions early in the month. The panel television market, a mainstay of Black Friday, is expected to show moderate declines in sales volume and revenues.
The IT hardware market is forecast to continue the recovery seen throughout the year, led by mobile computing. Home appliances are set to show small decline in revenues compared to Black Friday 2024, but a healthy increase in unit sales as manufacturers apply aggressive discounts. Vacuum cleaners may be the unlikely hero of Black Friday 2025, forecast to deliver good revenue growth off flat unit sales. Cooking appliances will also grow, but the cooling market is expected to stumble.
Haeri says: “In recent years, consumers have still engaged enthusiastically with Black Friday, but they are increasingly price-sensitive and value-driven. Customers do their research carefully and will not be fooled by shallow discounts and misleading promotions. Brands are responding with big November promos, especially during Black Friday week. Our data shows that 20% of products were sold at 50% discounts in 2024, compared to close to 0% in 2022 and 2023.”
In terms of the typical cadence of Black Friday discounting and promotions, brands usually start with aggressive clearance sales and entry-level offerings during the first two weeks of November. By mid-November, the focus often shifts to the mid-tier market, before ending off with blockbuster deals on flagship and premium products during the last week of the month. While many retailers continue to offer discounts for Cyber Monday in the week following Black Friday, sales activity generally fall off sharply.
Value-driven shoppers to test T&D brands’ agility
Brands and retailers that do well during this time will apply personalised and segmented approaches to reaching the market. Many have found success in offering bundles (such as smartphone and accessories or a console plus some games) rather than standalone discounts. “Price-sensitive customers tend to respond well to strong entry-level offers, while value-conscious customers look for compelling mid-market deals,” says Haeri.
“The final week of November is typically when brands can convert premium customers who are in the market for flagship products or high-end experiences. Prices across most product groups tend to be lower than the weekly averages for the year, reflecting the deeper discount ranges seen during this period. Since many consumers research and lock in deals before Black Friday, premium brands benefit from activating early to capture high-intent buyers before the discount frenzy on Black Friday.”
Haeri says some of the success factors for Black Friday include
- An omnichannel approach that accommodates the complex online/offline journey consumers take when researching and buying T&D products.
- Early activation of marketing and promotions to win attention in the run-up to Black Friday.
- Sharp messaging focused on value for money, bundle savings and limited time or quantity calls to action.
- Surgical discounting because shoppers respond to targeted deals rather than blanket price cuts.
- Personalised and segmented communications with reminders and early access for existing customers.
- Measurement and optimisation of campaigns and discounts in real time to respond to volatile consumer demand.
