With the never-ending disaster rocking the Peoples Democratic Occasion (PDP) and the absence of cohesion amongst different opposition events, Ekiti voters could also be left with restricted selections within the 2026 governorship election. The event is steadily tilting the state in the direction of the fact of a one-party system, AYODELE AFOLABI reviews.
Forward of the July 20, 2026, governorship election in Ekiti State, voters within the Land of Honour and Integrity might have little or no various past the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and its candidate, as opposition political events proceed to flounder.
Since 1999, gubernatorial elections in Ekiti have all the time been fiercely contested between the APC and the PDP. That sample modified dramatically in 2022 when the PDP misplaced its standing as the principle challenger to the Social Democratic Occasion (SDP). In that election, the SDP candidate, Segun Oni, got here second whereas the PDP flagbearer, Olabisi Kolawole, trailed at a distant third.
The APC secured 187,057 votes to win the competition, whereas the SDP polled 82,211 votes and the PDP 67,457. The remaining 13 political events, together with Motion Democratic Occasion (ADP), Motion Peoples Occasion (APP), Younger Progressives Occasion (YPP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), New Nigeria Peoples Occasion (NNPP), Peoples Redemption Occasion (PRP), Labour Occasion (LP), Accord (A), Zenith Labour Occasion (ZLP) and Peoples Democratic Motion (PDM), collectively mustered simply 12,400 votes, representing about 4.5 per cent of the ballots forged.
That final result underscored the fragility of the opposition. Since then, the area has additional narrowed. Oni and his loyalists have defected to the APC, leaving the SDP a shadow of itself. The PDP stays slowed down by inside wrangling, authorized battles and mass defections. Different events hardly exist past posters and billboards.
PDP’s threesome burden
ANALYSTS usually describe PDP in Ekiti as weighed down by three main burdens: interminable crises, countless litigations and serial defections.
The primary disaster traces again to September 2017, when former governor Ayodele Fayose unilaterally picked his deputy, Prof. Kolapo Olusola, as the only governorship candidate even earlier than the occasion major. The imposition alienated different aspirants, together with former Minister of State for Works, Dayo Adeyeye; Senate Minority Chief, Biodun Olujimi; former Ambassador to Canada, Dare Bejide; former Deputy Governor Bisi Omoyeni; and ex-Lawyer Common Owoseeni Ajayi.
The aggrieved aspirants rebelled and pursued their ambitions on different platforms. That call fractured the PDP base, weakened its construction throughout the 16 native councils and planted seeds of disunity which have festered until as we speak.
The second burden is litigation. At nearly each flip, the occasion has been dragged to court docket by its members. Among the fits have been overtaken by occasions, however no less than 5 stay pending. For example, on August 8, 2025, a State Excessive Courtroom in Ado-Ekiti voided the PDP native authorities congress held in Could whereas upholding the ward congress carried out in March. Justice Bamidele Omotoso’s ruling, delivered in Movement Ex parte HAD/424M/2025 filed by Afolabi Adedeji, threw the occasion’s congresses into disarray.
Such disputes have stalled the occasion’s reorganisation forward of the 2026 ballot. As an alternative of presenting a united entrance, aspirants stay trapped in authorized uncertainty.
The third burden is the regular erosion of membership. Prime leaders and financiers have both crossed to the APC or embraced the African Democratic Congress (ADC), a coalition newly unveiled in July 2025. Former Senate Minority Chief, Biodun Olujimi, arguably the one PDP politician to win any election in Ekiti since 2018, lately defected to the APC, taking her formidable grassroots equipment together with her.
ADC’s sudden rise
WHILE PDP fragments, the ADC has emerged as a shocking rallying level. At its unveiling in Ado-Ekiti on July 25, 2025, the occasion paraded a formidable roll name of defectors, a lot of them as soon as pillars of PDP or APC.
These in attendance included Prof. Olusola Eleka, former deputy governor below Fayose; Gboyega Aribisogan, ex-Speaker of Ekiti Meeting; Dr Tae Lawal, one-time deputy governor below Segun Oni; and Dare Bejide, former Secretary to the State Authorities and ambassador. Additionally current had been Chief Dipo Anisulowo, Fayose’s former Chief of Employees; Akin Omole, ex-Commissioner for Data below Kayode Fayemi; and Modupe Alade, former SSG below Fayose.
A number of ex-members of the Home of Representatives and Meeting, commissioners and political strategists additionally joined, signalling what analysts describe as “a harvest of defectors.”
But, questions stay over whether or not ADC can translate massive names into electoral construction. Whereas it might profit from disenchanted PDP loyalists, observers say it lacks the deep grassroots organisation and funding muscle required to problem the APC in lower than a yr.
In the meantime, the APC seems strong below Governor Biodun Oyebanji, who’s looking for a second time period. The defections of Oni and Olujimi have bolstered its ranks. Furthermore, Fayose, as soon as APC’s fiercest adversary, has overtly endorsed Oyebanji’s re-election bid. For the primary time since 1999, Ekiti might witness a governorship election the place the ruling occasion enters with not solely an incumbency benefit but additionally a broad elite consensus throughout former rivals.
Nonetheless, political watchers warning towards complacency. APC might face cracks after its primaries, particularly if aggrieved aspirants bolt to opposition platforms. “In politics, 24 hours is a very long time,” famous public affairs analyst Dr Wole Balogun. “An sudden coalition might alter the sport.”
The weakening of opposition raises issues past 2026. Balogun warned {that a} lack of viable challengers might undermine the credibility and competitiveness of the election. “If Oyebanji wins unchallenged, not essentially due to efficiency however as a result of opposition collapse, it could dent the legitimacy of the ballot,” he stated.
Femi Olajide added that restricted alternative would possibly gasoline voter apathy. “Poor turnout might hand Oyebanji an undue benefit, entrenching a one-party system in Ekiti. That will be harmful for multiparty democracy,” he stated.
Certainly, Ekiti has prided itself on vibrant contests for the reason that Fourth Republic started. In 2003, Fayose unseated an incumbent governor. In 2014, he returned to energy in dramatic trend. However such shifts might now not be attainable if the opposition continues to implode.
Regardless of its troubles, some aspirants insist PDP can nonetheless reclaim energy. Dr Wole Oluyede, a medical physician and former APC aspirant, is looking for the occasion’s ticket. Additionally within the race are former Commissioner for Works, Funmilayo Ogun, and aviation government, Peter Obafemi.
Ogun expressed confidence that PDP might shock sceptics, whereas Obafemi careworn the necessity for “accountable management and good governance.” But, doubts persist over whether or not any of them can marketing campaign successfully below a fractured platform nonetheless enmeshed in lawsuits and defections.
The anti-party stance of Fayose additional complicates issues. Though he stays in PDP, his open help for Oyebanji has demoralised occasion loyalists. For a lot of, it indicators the demise knell of PDP’s possibilities in 2026.
Implications of the Ekiti elite rallying behind Oyebanji
THE democratic scene is witnessing an uncommon alignment. For the primary time for the reason that state’s creation in 1996, nearly all main energy blocs and political heavyweights look like united behind the incumbent governor. What’s unfolding just isn’t merely elite consensus, but additionally a calculated transfer that will decide how the way forward for democracy performs out in Ekiti.
Former governors of the state, Ayodele Fayose, Kayode Fayemi, Segun Oni and Niyi Adebayo, have all, in numerous methods, signalled help for Oyebanji’s re-election bid. This uncommon present of solidarity is placing, contemplating the historic rivalry that has outlined Ekiti politics.
Fayose, a two-term governor on the platform of PDP, has publicly praised Oyebanji’s fashion of governance, whereas Fayemi, below whose administration Oyebanji served as Secretary to the State Authorities, has successfully handed over his formidable political community to the incumbent. Segun Oni, who as soon as battled Oyebanji fiercely in court docket after the 2022 election, has toned down his opposition, with shut allies more and more warming as much as the governor.
On the Nationwide Meeting, Ekiti’s lawmakers throughout political divides, each these loyal to Fayemi and others beforehand aligned with opposition camps, have endorsed the governor. This unprecedented consensus implies that Oyebanji now enjoys not solely the institutional backing of the ruling APC, but additionally a bipartisan endorsement from figures who as soon as fragmented the state’s political panorama.
Nonetheless, one essential approval is excellent: that of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Within the APC custom, gubernatorial candidates of strategic states usually await the tacit blessing of the president. For Oyebanji, who has cultivated a loyalist picture fairly than a combative one, Tinubu’s nod would cement his candidacy and render the opposition nearly non-existent forward of 2026.
Whereas this convergence of elite help might assure political stability, it raises crucial questions on the way forward for democracy in Ekiti. On the one hand, Oyebanji’s means to attract collectively erstwhile rivals is being hailed as an indication of maturity and continuity, making certain that governance just isn’t derailed by pointless partisanship. It might additionally free the governor to give attention to delivering tasks fairly than partaking in countless political battles.
Then again, Ekiti individuals threat dropping the essence of democratic alternative. With all main elites collapsing into one camp, the voters could also be left with no credible opposition voice to problem the ruling occasion. This situation breeds the hazard of voter apathy, as many might even see little level in turning out for an election whose final result seems predetermined. The absence of robust opposition additionally weakens accountability, for the reason that governor might not really feel pressured to outperform rivals.
Finally, the elite consensus round Oyebanji displays each alternative and threat. For the governor, it secures political area to consolidate his administration. For the individuals, nonetheless, it poses the dilemma of whether or not stability ought to come on the expense of vibrant democratic contests.
Because the countdown to July 2026 continues, Ekiti faces the actual prospect of an election dominated by APC, with ADC struggling to organise and PDP weakened nearly past recognition.
For the voters, this raises troubling questions. Will voters really have a alternative? Will turnout shrink as a result of residents see the result as pre-determined? And what does this say about Nigeria’s multiparty democracy if considered one of its best states drifts into efficient one-party rule?
Observers warn that Ekiti’s scenario is a microcosm of a bigger nationwide downside, weak opposition, countless defections and politics decreased to elite bargains fairly than ideology or efficiency. Until the opposition reawakens, Ekiti’s 2026 governorship ballot might set a harmful precedent.
