President Bola Ahmed Tinubu seems to be consolidating his maintain on political energy forward of the 2027 basic election. Whereas some opposition leaders are forming new coalitions or searching for alignment with disenchanted northern politicians to problem the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), the President has continued to realize floor, notably within the South, by way of elite realignments and high-profile defections.
The outcomes of the final by-elections additional confirms the power of the ruling APC simply because it uncovered the weaknesses of the opposition events, particularly that of African Democratic Congress (ADC), which regardless of the general public brouhaha couldn’t even win a single seat out of the 16 contested throughout 12 states.
Regardless of dealing with a mixed opposition pressure comprising former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, ex-governors Nasir El-Rufai and Rabiu Kwankwaso; and former Transport Minister, Rotimi Amaechi, Tinubu has managed to realize what he couldn’t in 2023 – strengthen his maintain throughout Nigeria, together with components of the North the place he was weakest. The APC’s management of state governments throughout the three northern zones has elevated considerably, whereas the South, particularly the South-South and Southeast, has seen a wave of defections from the Peoples Democratic Occasion (PDP), Labour Occasion (LP), and the New Nigeria Peoples Occasion (NNPP) to the ruling APC.
Within the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu polled 8.79 million votes and received 12 states, however his efficiency within the North was not outstanding. He misplaced Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Sokoto, Adamawa, Bauchi, Kebbi, Taraba, and Plateau states. Whereas he received Kogi, Kwara, Niger, Borno, Yobe, Zamfara, Jigawa, and Gombe states, his closest challenger, Atiku Abubakar of the PDP, dominated many of the Northwest and Northeast states.
The NNPP’s Rabiu Kwankwaso received Kano State, whereas Peter Obi of the LP took Abuja, Plateau, and Nasarawa states, making vital inroads within the North Central.
Tinubu’s losses have been largely attributed to the APC’s poor notion underneath his predecessor, the late former president Muhammadu Buhari, the rejection of the Muslim-Muslim ticket by northern Christian voters, weak grassroots constructions in sure states, and inside social gathering conflicts in locations like Kaduna and Katsina. In lots of of those states, Tinubu’s marketing campaign depended closely on native allies like El-Rufai, Aminu Bello Masari, and others, whose affect was restricted or waning.
Nonetheless, greater than two years into his Presidency, the steadiness of energy has shifted in Tinubu’s favour. Key defections from the PDP and NNPP to the APC, notably within the North, are weakening the opposition and giving the ruling social gathering a broader foothold.
Within the Northwest, Tinubu’s weakest zone in 2023, the APC has since welcomed PDP lawmakers from states like Jigawa and Kaduna and has regained legislative seats by way of defections in Kebbi, Zamfara, and Sokoto. Former NNPP chieftains in Kano, Jigawa, and Zamfara have additionally joined the APC, eroding Kwankwaso’s base.
Within the Northeast, the APC has additional consolidated energy with the defection of influential politicians in Bauchi, Yobe, and Gombe. The APC controls Borno, Yobe, Gombe, and is making inroads in Taraba and Adamawa, the place Tinubu had struggled in 2023. Within the North Central, the APC continues to dominate in Niger, Kogi, and Kwara, whereas profitable over lawmakers and native leaders in Benue, Nasarawa, and Plateau.
Within the South, Tinubu has made vital beneficial properties since 2023. Within the Southwest, the President misplaced Lagos and Osun over the past presidential ballot, however the tide is altering. Lagos PDP’s 2023 governorship candidate, Abdul-Azeez Olajide Adediran (Jandor), has defected to the APC, together with key members of the Lagos4Lagos Motion. In Osun, Governor Ademola Adeleke’s latest go to to Tinubu has sparked rumors of defection, particularly because the PDP faces inside crises nationally and domestically.
Tinubu is allegedly wooing Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo, whose 2023 assist for him helped ship victory within the state. It was gathered that the President is utilizing what insiders name a “tender technique” – counting on federal energy and quiet negotiations – to win over opposition governors within the South who worry dropping re-election assist, federal appointments, or budgetary discretion.
Within the South-South, Tinubu has remodeled the APC’s presence since 2023. The social gathering managed solely Cross River on the time however now boasts management in Edo, Delta, Cross River and Akwa Ibom following defections by PDP governors, together with Sheriff Oborevwori (Delta) and Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), and former governor Ifeanyi Okowa.
Rivers State stays in flux. Governor Siminalayi Fubara’s face-off together with his predecessor and present FCT Minister, Nyesom Wike, has opened new political calculations. Although Fubara stays within the PDP, he has little question drawn nearer to Tinubu whereas attempting to handle the disaster in his state.
In Bayelsa, Tinubu has gained an surprising increase with the latest endorsement by former President Goodluck Jonathan. Although not but a proper defection, Jonathan’s public alignment with Tinubu and his reward of the President’s nationwide reconciliation efforts have been interpreted as a refined however highly effective sign. The previous president stays probably the most influential political determine in Bayelsa and a logo of South-South political id.
His assist may weaken PDP’s dominance within the state, embolden APC loyalists, and reshape the political equation forward of 2027.
Within the Southeast, Tinubu’s electoral efficiency in 2023 was dismal. Peter Obi swept all 5 states. However LP’s inside divisions, Obi’s unsure 2027 ambition, and the rising affect of APC figures like Governor Hope Uzodimma (Imo) and Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu have created new openings for the ruling social gathering.
Uzodimma’s re-election and Kalu’s “Peace in Southeast” initiative underneath the Renewed Hope Agenda are a part of a broader technique to reposition Tinubu’s picture within the area. Governors like Charles Soludo of Anambra (APGA) and Peter Mbah of Enugu (PDP) are reportedly sustaining cordial relations with Tinubu.
If Obi doesn’t contest in 2027 or fails to rally a united opposition, Tinubu stands an opportunity of bettering his efficiency within the Southeast, particularly as APC constructions are being constructed quietly throughout the area.
In abstract, Tinubu’s 2027 map seems broader and stronger than it was in 2023. If he retains all of the states he received in 2023, recovers Lagos and Osun, provides extra states within the South-South, and improves his efficiency within the North Central and Southeast, he may safe a smoother path to re-election. The President’s incumbency benefit, APC’s rising nationwide footprint, high-profile endorsements resembling Jonathan’s, and opposition fragmentation might show decisive within the battle for 2027.
Reacting to the opportunity of an opposition coalition unsettling President Tinubu in 2027, Particular Adviser to the President on Info and Technique, Bayo Onanuga, mentioned the administration is targeted on consolidating financial reforms and infrastructure improvement. Chatting with journalists not too long ago, Onanuga dismissed the opposition alliance as a bunch merely searching for energy with out real concern for Nigeria’s progress in contrast to President Tinubu, whom he mentioned is working within the nationwide curiosity.
He additional disclosed that makes an attempt by members of the opposition coalition to win over some key political actors in each the North and South had failed. Onanuga expressed confidence that President Tinubu has accomplished sufficient to deserve re-election in 2027.
He additionally downplayed dissent from a couple of northern politicians, saying their views don’t replicate the overall disposition of the area in the direction of Tinubu. For example, he cited elder statesman, Alhaji Tanko Yakasai, who not too long ago declared assist for the President and counseled his financial reforms.
Efforts by the opposition to woo the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) bloc inside the APC didn’t succeed, as former president Buhari, earlier than his passage, distanced himself from the coalition.
Past Onanuga’s remarks, many latest defectors to the APC have argued that their determination to affix the ruling social gathering went past inside crises of their former events and was additionally motivated by the work President Tinubu is doing.
Nonetheless, a chieftain of Ohanaeze Ndigbo, Chief Ralph Uwazurike, warned that relying solely on defections is probably not sufficient to safe re-election for Tinubu in 2027. He mentioned Tinubu should do extra to win over voters within the South East, notably by conceding extra federal appointments to the area.
“The South East nonetheless feels largely marginalised underneath the Tinubu administration,” he mentioned. “However I consider he can use the remaining two years to 2027 to right no matter anomalies with the area.”
Equally, a politician in Imo State, Captain Peter Mbamara (retd), mentioned the APC would stand a stronger probability within the area if the LP presidential candidate, Peter Obi, doesn’t run in 2027.
“Southeast voters will naturally gravitate in the direction of Obi in 2027, particularly if the PDP efficiently woos him again to safe its ticket,” he mentioned.
Mbamara, nevertheless, famous that this state of affairs will depend on whether or not northern politicians can be prepared to assist an Igbo presidency for an additional eight years, or whether or not they would like Tinubu to finish his second time period and return energy to the North in 2031.
Following the 2023 elections, the APC managed 20 states.
It has since added Edo, Delta, and Akwa Ibom to its fold. In the meantime, the foremost opposition social gathering, PDP, which initially managed 13 states, has been diminished to 9, whereas APGA, NNPP, and LP management one state every. Nonetheless, nothing is solid in stone but; the journey to 2027 elections is simply starting.
