Iyobosa Uwugiaren writes that the broader surge in banditry and terror attacks in the past few days – all blend into a grim pattern that many Nigerians are now calling a “political script” of 2025.
The past few days have been vicious for Nigeria’s Chief Security Officer, President Bola Tinubu, and Nigeria – as a nation. ISWAP’s ambush that led to Brigadier‑General M. Uba’s capture and execution, the harrowing kidnapping of 25 girls from a Kebbi State boarding school, the killings in Kwara State and the broader surge in banditry and terror attacks – all blend into a grim pattern that many Nigerians are now calling a “political script” of 2025.
Security insiders’ analysis of the unfolding sad events point to a conversant narrative—one that allegedly led to the 2015 downfall of former President Goodluck Jonathan—and suggest the same “evil men” are behind today’s bloodbath, aiming to sow fear and undermine President Tinubu.
‘’These acts of terror are being perpetrated by enemies of our country for political gains. Call it a conspiracy theory—I don’t care. The obvious signs are there.
‘’They used the same strategies against former President Goodluck Jonathan – prior to the 2015 general election’’, a senior intelligence officer told THISDAY in Abuja on Wednesday.
From the narrative, the whole idea is to create fear in the minds of Nigerians, giving the impression that the nation is not safe under President Tinubu, and weaponize it to instigate citizens against the President.
‘’Ahead of the 2027 general elections, these same evil men, who have fallen out with President Bola Tinubu, are once again weaponizing insecurity to create political uncertainty in the country. The singsong in the last few days is that Nigeria is not safe with Tinubu as leader of Nigeria – he must give way’’, the insider added.
Perhaps so. Looking back on how the insurgency narrative was forcefully used against former President Jonathan in 2015, Boko Haram insurgency heightened in the country around 2009, intensifying after 2011 – with attacks on civilians, churches, and security forces.
By 2013–2014, the group gained global unsavory reputation, kidnapping over 200 schoolgirls in Chibok – April 2014, drawing massive media attention.
In the narrative against Jonathan, he was perceived as very clueless and weak. Opponents and critics framed Jonathan as “soft” or “ineffective” in tackling Boko Haram. Phrases like “inaction” and “lack of leadership” dominated media headlines and spaces. International and local media celebrated Boko Haram’s brutality, often linking it to Jonathan’s administration, suggesting negligence or complicity.
The then opposition leaders like late MuhammaduBuhari, Bola Tinubu, the loquacious spokesman for the then collation of oppositions, Lai Mohammed, and others, accused Jonathan’s government of failing/refusing to protect Nigerians and “mismanaging” military resources.
What more? Hashtags like #BringBackOurGirls trended globally, fueling public anger and pressure on Jonathan’s government. False or exaggerated claims like “Jonathan diverted military funds” spread, worsening public perception. Buhari, campaigning on anti-insurgency – “change”, won resolutely. While Boko Haram truly posed a threat to the survival of the country, the narrative intensified political polarization and was used instrumentally for electoral gains.
Political analysts say the insurgency narrative was a political weapon—mix of real terror, media hype, and opposition rhetoric—that shifted public perception and votes, and security became the decisive issue in 2015.
Tinubu, like some argued, may not have been an insider in the weaponization of insecurity against Jonathan, but his political party, APC, was the sole beneficiary of that ‘’unholy’’ and ‘’ungodly action.’’
Some people might say ‘’Kaman is stupid.’’ Perhaps, sadly so. Ten years later those who were said to have masterminded that plot, who have fell out with Tinubu, are said to be at it again. They are said to be weaponising insecurity again as political strategy – deliberately exploiting and inflating fear, violence, or chaos to tilt political outcomes—ahead of the 2027 general elections.
Like in 2015, there are mass kidnappings, high‑profile assassinations, and relentless insurgent attacks mirror the strategies used by Boko Haram and allied groups in the past.
To be sure, in the last few days, gunmen have attacked a church in Kwara State, killing and kidnapping the pastor, and some worshippers, according to police and witnesses – days after 25 girls were abducted from a boarding school.
The attack on Tuesday evening in the town of Eruku in Kwara State puts more pressure on the government that is under scrutiny from U.S. President Donald Trump, who has threatened military action over persecution of Christians.
From the international community, Rapper Nicki Minaj has appealed for global action to defend religious freedom. Speaking at the U.S. embassy to the United Nations, the Trinidad-born artist, who lives in New York, claimed that in Nigeria “Christians are being targeted, driven from their homes and killed”.
While Nigeria may be grappling with an Islamist insurgency in the Northeast, abductions and killings by armed gangs mainly in the Northwest and deadly clashes between mainly Muslim herdsmen and mostly Christian farmers in its North central zone, the government says the U.S. designation of Nigeria as “a country of particular concern” misrepresents its complex security challenges and does not take into account its efforts to safeguard freedom of religion for all.
There are reports that in the latest attack, police responded to gunfire at around 6 p.m. on Tuesday and discovered one person fatally shot inside the church and another in a nearby bush. But witnesses said they counted at least three dead church members.
“They later rounded up some worshippers, including the pastor, and took them into the bush,” parishioner Joseph Bitrus told Reuters, without saying how many were taken.
A video posted by a local news outlet and verified by Reuters showed the Christ Apostolic Church service being interrupted by gunfire, forcing parishioners to scamper for cover. Armed men are seen entering and taking people’s belongings as gunshots continue.
The governor of Kwara State, AbdulrahmanAbdulrasaq, asked for the immediate deployment of more security operatives following the church attack.
The terror fear is sadly spreading. The security agents have not yet located the girls abducted by armed men who recently stormed the predominantly Muslim Government Girls Comprehensive Secondary School in Kebbi state. Vice President KashimShettima was expected to travel to the state to meet officials and parents on Wednesday. President Tinubu has postponed foreign trips and ordered intensified security measures.
Indeed, there is fear and tension across the nation. Statements from intelligence officials and opposition figures highlight a “conspiracy theory” framing, warning that the violence is being weaponised to paint the current administration as ineffective.
From media reports, there are multiple perspectives to the current insecurity. Federal government officials stress that the attacks are part of the ongoing insurgency and banditry, urging citizens to support security forces and avoid speculation.
But some security analysts caution that while the “same script” claim resonates emotionally, concrete evidence of a coordinated political plot remains thin; the surge could also stem from hardened insurgent groups exploiting current weaknesses.
The bottom line is that the convergence of high‑profile terror acts and a charged political climate fuels a narrative that history is repeating—this time with the 2027 elections in sight. Whether rooted in orchestrated manipulation or simply a continuation of Nigeria’s long‑standing security crisis, the impact is undeniably devastating. The priority now is swift rescue of the abducted girls, accountability for Brigadier-General Uba’s death, and a coordinated national response to curb the spreading insecurity.
The implications of insecurity in the country is sadly telling. Citizens are fast losing confidence in government’s ability to protect lives and property. Opposition parties are amplifying fears, turning insecurity into a vote‑bank issue. Some of them are staging or sponsoring violence to create an image of failed leadership.
Check social media platforms in the last few days, insecurity is being framed along ethnic, religious, or regional lines, thereby deepening the nation’s divides, and politicians are exploiting these fault‑lines to rally support, fragmenting national cohesion.
It should be obvious by now that the persistent insecurity is deterring foreign investment, hampering aid flows, and straining diplomatic relations.
Forget the lies by agents of the federal government, there is revenue losses and budget strain in the nation economy as a result of insecurity. There is huge disruption in agriculture, and increased security spending is already crowding out health, education, and infrastructure budgets.
In all these, political experts say what is at stake is the nation: No nation sacrifice the country on alter of dirty politics and remains the same.
Weaponising insecurity is surely a risky gamble—gains may be momentary, but the fallout—social fracture, loss of lives, and institutional decay—often outlasts the perpetrators.
